Saturday, July 20, 2024
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As the aviation industry experiences a robust recovery, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, Boeing [NYSE: BA] has unveiled an optimistic forecast. In its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO),
As air travel has fully recovered and surpassed pre-pandemic levels, Boeing [NYSE: BA] forecasts a 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next 20 years. According to Boeing’s 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), airlines will require nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043. The report, released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, also indicates that emerging markets and global single-aisle market demand will continue to be the primary growth drivers for the industry.
Air travel demand is outpacing economic growth in a highly connected world. Four years after the pandemic halted most of the global fleet, air traffic growth has rebounded to align with the long-term projections Boeing made two decades ago. The CMO predicts that passenger air traffic will rise by an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades compared to 2023 levels.
“”This is a pivotal and motivating time for the aviation industry”. The return to more typical traffic growth demonstrates our industry’s resilience, even as we navigate ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing’s executive vice president of Sales and Marketing.
CMO Forecast Highlights Through 2043:
- The global commercial fleet is expected to grow by 3.2% annually, slower than air traffic, as airlines increase productivity by boosting load factors and utilizing airplanes more efficiently.
- The air cargo fleet, known for its speed and reliability, will expand by two-thirds by 2043, supporting an annual air cargo traffic growth of 4.1%.
Air Travel Trends:
- The average global airline fare remains similar to prices from 20 years ago, despite a doubling of overall consumer prices.
- The number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, with nearly 20% being new routes, showcasing the aviation industry’s adaptability in a dynamic market.
Key Growth Drivers:
- South Asia passenger traffic is projected to increase by 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%), as emerging markets return to historical growth trends.
- Eurasia is expected to lead in airplane deliveries (22% of the total), with North America and China each close behind at 20%.
- Single-aisle airplanes will constitute 71% of the 2043 fleet with 33,380 new deliveries, serving short- to medium-haul routes.
- The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisles making up 44% of the Middle East fleet.
Services on the Rise:
Boeing anticipates demand for commercial services valued at $4.4 trillion, driven by maintenance and modification options and digital solutions that enhance efficiency. The expanding air travel sector, particularly in emerging markets, will necessitate nearly 2.4 million new personnel, including pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew.
“As airlines meet the strong passenger demand, the services market is expanding, driven not only by fleet growth but also by a heightened focus on reducing operating costs and enhancing.
